The U.S. commercial truck market is poised for significant changes in the coming decade, with the report “U.S. Potential Sales of Electric Trucks and Road Tractors: 2025–2030” by economist Stephen Latin-Kasper providing a detailed breakdown of which segments of the commercial truck market are best suited for electrification. Key findings of the report include the fact that nearly 75% of all trucks in the U.S. travel fewer than 100 miles per round trip, with 67% of commercial-use trucks falling within this range. This is significant, as it falls well within the average range of current battery-electric pickups and vans.
Commercial Pickups and Cargo Vans: Prime Targets for Electrification
The report identifies commercial pickups and cargo vans as the largest short-trip segments, with 69% of commercial pickups used primarily within 50 miles of home base and 72% of commercial cargo vans operating in this range. These vehicles are used primarily for construction, agriculture, and landscaping, and the report estimates that roughly 4 million pickups in these sectors could be replaced by electric models based on usage patterns.
- Key segments: pickups and cargo vans
- Majority of pickups and vans used for construction, agriculture, and landscaping
- Roughly 4 million pickups estimated to be suitable for electric models
Road Tractors: A Mixed Picture
Electrifying road tractors presents more complexity due to longer average trip distances. However, the report highlights agricultural operations and port drayage as potential early-use cases for electric road tractors. Nearly 61% of road tractors still operate within 100 miles of their base, which falls within the range of current battery-electric models.
| Segment | Percentage of Road Tractors Operating Within 100 Miles of Base |
|---|---|
| Agricultural Operations | 75% |
| Port Drayage | 63% |
| All Industries | 61% |
Total Electric Potential: 14.4 Million Trucks
By combining trip length with other factors such as payload and fueling infrastructure, the report estimates the Total Electric Potential (TEP) of the U.S. commercial truck fleet at 14.4 million units as of Q1 2025. This figure includes vehicles that could be replaced by electric versions based on usage characteristics and assumes modest growth through 2030.
Barriers to Adoption
While usage data supports the feasibility of broader electrification, economist Stephen Latin-Kasper notes that charging infrastructure and purchase price remain significant hurdles. Public charging availability is growing, but not fast enough to match vehicle sales. Additionally, price gaps between ICE and EV models — especially in heavier weight classes — continue to slow adoption, despite lower operating costs for EVs.
Report Availability
The full report, including data tables and spreadsheets detailing vehicle use by industry, weight class, and trip length, is available for purchase from Coherent Market Planning and Forecasting (CMPF). It is intended to support OEMs, dealers, fleets, and policymakers in evaluating the commercial EV landscape through 2030. To inquire about purchasing the report, visit: coherentforecasting.org
VIUS Benchmark Survey
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) provides the benchmark data used in the report. The current survey was published in 2024 using 2021 data, and the next one is likely to be published in 2029. Electrification of U.S. Commercial Trucks: A Key Trend
The report highlights the potential for significant changes in the U.S. commercial truck market over the coming decade. With nearly 75% of all trucks in the U.S. traveling fewer than 100 miles per round trip, and 67% of commercial-use trucks falling within this range, the case for electrification is strong. Commercial pickups and cargo vans are prime targets for electrification, with 69% of commercial pickups and 72% of commercial cargo vans used for short trips. Road tractors present a more complex case, but agricultural operations and port drayage are identified as potential early-use cases for electric models. With an estimated total electric potential of 14.4 million trucks, the report provides valuable insights for OEMs, dealers, fleets, and policymakers looking to navigate the commercial EV landscape through 2030.
